Invest 95L: Keeping A Close Eye On Tropical Wave 14 East Of Lesser Antilles

Tropical Wave 14/Invest 95L Key Messages:
– Tropical Wave 14/Invest 95L has low chances of development over the next 5 days as it moves across the Atlantic Ocean at low latitudes.
Impacts: It is too soon to tell. Most models have backed off an organized tropical system moving across the Lesser Antilles.
Track: Also, too soon to tell but forecast models suggest this tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles by the middle to end of next week.

Tropical Wave 14: Low Chances for Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Weather Outlook as of 8:00 AM Friday 25th June 2021
Tropical Weather Outlook as of 8:00 AM Friday 25th June 2021

Over the last couple of days, we’ve been monitoring a strong tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic, producing scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and strong winds around an area of low pressure.

The National Hurricane Center, in their 8 AM AST Tropical Weather Outlook, tagged Tropical Wave 14 for tropical cyclone development. However, there is very little model support for tropical cyclone formation at this time.

From the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook, as of 8:00 AM EST, “Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic are associated with a strong tropical wave. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due to marginally conducive environmental conditions. This wave is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle of next week.”

As of the 8:00 AM EST Tropical Weather Outlook, this system has a low chance, 10%, of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and a low chance, 20%, of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days.

What We Know

Tropical Wave 14 in the far Eastern Atlantic, producing an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms. (Weathernerds)
Tropical Wave 14 in the far Eastern Atlantic, producing an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms. (Weathernerds)

A tropical wave between the African coast and Cabo Verde Islands has an axis along 20W from 16N southward, moving west at 15 knots. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 12N E of 23W. The approximate center of the broad cyclonic turning of this disturbance at 21.9W, 8.4N, making it over 4,400 kilometers east-southeast of Trinidad and Tobago.

As of Friday, there is no well-defined circulation of the system although the system is producing showers and thunderstorms.

Tropical Wave 14 is located in an area of marginally favorable upper-level divergence, low-level convergence, and abundant moisture, with marginally favorable wind shear ahead of it over the next 5 days. The main inhibitor of development over the next several days will be the systems path over cool sea-surface temperatures.

It is still too soon to tell what impacts, if any, this could bring to the Lesser Antilles as models still diverge on whether this wave moves to the northeast, bypassing the region entirely or moving across the Windward Islands.

What We Forecast

Tropical Wave 14: Track

It is too soon to tell. However, the eventual system (whether it’s a tropical wave, disturbance, or cyclone) may move directly into the Lesser Antilles.

Forecast tracks from the EMCWF (EPS/EMCF) ensembles for Tropical Wave 14 as of 06Z Friday 25th June 2021.
Forecast tracks from the EMCWF (EPS/EMCF) ensembles for Tropical Wave 14 as of 06Z Friday 25th June 2021.

This tropical wave is mostly directed by a deep-layered high-pressure system anchored over the subtropics. This high-pressure system is forecast to dominate the Atlantic over the next five to seven days, with winds picking up across the Lesser Antilles.

When looking at the ensemble models, most of these outputs show that the system generally moves to the west-northwest, moving most of the showers and thunderstorms north of T&T, into the French Antilles and the Leeward Islands.

Tropical Wave 14: Intensity

It is too soon to tell. No global models develop this, and their ensembles keep this as a tropical wave over the next five to seven days.

Dynamical model guidance on systems that have not yet formed has a difficult time showing the eventual track or intensity of undeveloped systems.

In fact, none of the operational models from top global models (EMCWF, GFS, UKMET) shows this system developing later next week. Very few ensemble runs of these models bring this system to tropical depression status.

Over the last 24-48 hours, model enthusiasm has generally declined for this particular tropical wave, with ensemble guidance now looking at the following tropical wave still located over Western Africa for development.

Thankfully, Tropical Wave 14 is well over 4,400 kilometers away as of Friday morning so there is sufficient time to wait and watch.

The latest model runs of the EMCWF and GFS showing peak wind gusts over the next 10 days across the Lesser Antilles. (Windy)
The latest model runs of the EMCWF and GFS showing peak wind gusts over the next 10 days across the Lesser Antilles. (Windy)

Though no operational models develop Tropical Wave 14, they continue to show an area of gusty winds generally moving across the Lesser Antilles by the middle to end of next week.

But this model shows…

Individual model runs are just one possible outcome from a myriad of outcomes. Weather does not always follow what is modeled, and even what may be forecast. Beware of individual model runs being posted on social media.

Always check the National Hurricane Center for the latest information for tropical cyclones and your local meteorological offices for country-specific advisories.

What should I do?

Don’t panic. This system is several days and thousands of kilometers to our east-southeast so we quite a bit of time to wait and watch.

If you are a risk-averse person, now is a good time to check your inclement weather, flood, or hurricane season plan, ensuring your preparedness supplies are not expired, stocked, and in a safe location.

The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management has put together a comprehensive guide for preparing for the Wet and Hurricane Season.

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

2021 has already produced three tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin, with the next system being named Danny for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. For this time of year, most systems form in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and off the Eastern United States.

As we head through the first half of July, we’ll begin to monitor more closely tropical waves east of the Lesser Antilles.

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