Tropical Depression Omar Forecast To Dissipate By Weekend

Tropical Storm Omar has weakened to now Tropical Depression Omar in the Northern Atlantic. Omar is forecast to weaken into a remnant low-pressure system by Saturday.

This is the fifteenth tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, becoming the earliest 15th named storm in the Atlantic history. The previous record was Ophelia, which formed on September 7th, 2005.

This tropical cyclone is not forecast to impact Trinidad, Tobago or the Lesser Antilles.

At 5:00 PM AST, the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located

near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 65.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 14 MPH (22 KM/H), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast with some reduction in forward speed is forecast on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 MPH (55 KM/H) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Omar is likely to become a remnant low Thursday with dissipation by Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars.

Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM AST Wednesday 2nd September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM AST Wednesday 2nd September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

Watches & Warnings

Tropical Depression Omar Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Wednesday 2nd September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Depression Omar Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Wednesday 2nd September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards Affecting Land

Tropical Depression Omar probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 PM AST Wednesday 2nd September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Depression Omar probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 PM AST Wednesday 2nd September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no hazards affecting land.

This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion

Tropical Depression Omar (Weathernerds)
Tropical Depression Omar (Weathernerds)

Conventional satellite imagery shows that Omar’s cloud pattern is rapidly deteriorating, and the surface circulation center has become quite ill-defined. This morning’s METOP-A/B scatterometer passes revealed only a few 33 kt winds well to the southeast of the center and it’s reasonable to determine that those winds are no longer present. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory and is further supported by the subjective satellite intensity T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The latest global model runs agree with the depression degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. The dissipation of the remnant low should occur no later than Saturday evening.

Omar’s initial motion is estimated to be due east, or 090/13 kt, within the mid-latitude westerlies north of a subtropical ridge stretching east to west over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue moving eastward through Friday, although a couple of the global models are showing a track a bit more east-southeastward. Around the 60 hour period, the remnant low is expected to reduce in forward speed, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching baroclinic system entering the northwest Atlantic. The NHC forecast is nudged just a little to the right of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models.

Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Roberts from the NHC.

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