Tropical Storm Omar Forms, Expected To Be Shortlived

Tropical Storm Omar has formed in the far Western Atlantic, strengthening from Tropical Depression Fifteen. Omar is forecast to move out to sea over the next 5 days with minimal impacts to any landmasses.

This is the fifteenth tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, becoming the earliest 15th named storm in the Atlantic history. The previous record was Ophelia, which formed on September 7th, 2005.

This tropical cyclone is not forecast to impact Trinidad, Tobago or the Lesser Antilles.

At 5:00 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 71.5 West. Omar is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 MPH (24 KM/H). This general motion is forecast through Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the east by Thursday. On the forecast track, Omar will continue to move away from North Carolina.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 MPH (65 KM/H) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight, following by weakening beginning on Wednesday night. Omar is expected to degenerate into a remnant area of low pressure by late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 KM) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars.

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM AST Tuesday 1st September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Track as of 5:00 PM AST Tuesday 1st September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

Watches & Warnings

Tropical Storm Omar Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Tuesday 1st September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Omar Watches and Warnings as of 5:00 PM AST Tuesday 1st September 2020. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards Affecting Land

Tropical Storm Omar probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 PM AST Tuesday 1st September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Omar probabilities for tropical-storm-force winds as of 5:00 PM AST Tuesday 1st September 2020, as well as the most likely time of arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. (National Hurricane Center)

There are no hazards affecting land.

This system is of no direct threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.

Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion

Tropical Depression Fifteen off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast (Weathernerds)

Satellite images show that the system remains sheared with a bursting pattern on satellite, occasionally exposing the center, and a large area of curved bands in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. Almost all of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, along with SATCON values, are between 35 to 40 kt, and the lower number is chosen as the initial wind speed since scatterometer data suggests 30 to 35 kt. This makes Omar the 15th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and is the earliest 15th storm on record, besting the previous mark by about a week from Ophelia of 2005.

Any chance for strengthening should end by tomorrow afternoon due to greatly increasing shear, and weakening is likely to commence by then. The persistence of the shear should cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours, if not sooner. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, which is near the model consensus.

The initial motion remains east-northeast or 065/13 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the northern side of the subtropical ridge, which is forecast to cause a similar motion through tomorrow and an eastward turn late week due to the orientation of the ridge. The only notable change to the forecast is a slow down at long range in most of the guidance, probably due to a shallow system no longer feeling the stronger deep-layer winds, so the NHC track prediction follows suit. The remnant low should dissipate in 4-5
days.

Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Blake from the NHC.

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