Tropical Depression Five has formed in the Western Atlantic. Some strengthening is forecast over the next 24-48 hours. If it gets named, it’ll be the earliest 5th Atlantic named storm formation on record. The current earliest 5th named storm formation record in the Atlantic is Emily on July 12 in 2005.
At 5:00 PM AST, the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 67.3 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 MPH (26 KM/H). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected tonight, followed by additional acceleration on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move near or just northwest and north of Bermuda tonight and early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 MPH (55 KM/H) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is likely, however, the system could become a tropical storm tonight or early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars.
Watches & Warnings
There are no watches or warnings in effect, as this system moves into the North Atlantic Ocean, away from landmasses. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
Hazards Affecting Land
WIND: Tropical Depression Five could cause gusty conditions on Bermuda and over the nearby waters later today or tonight. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning, a Small Craft Warning, and a Thunderstorm Advisory for the area.
RAIN: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of less than 1 inch (25 mm)with possible isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches (75 mm) in Bermuda.
This system is of no threat to the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago.
Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion
Overall, the depression’s organization hasn’t changed much since the last advisory. Cloud tops have warmed a little, but the overall pattern is the same, with deep convection limited to the south of the center. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data from earlier this morning showed max winds of 25-30 kt southeast of the depression’s center, and is the primary basis for maintaining the 30 kt intensity.
No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast. The official forecast is still based on the track and intensity consensus, with extra weight given to the dynamical models for the intensity.
The depression is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward in the flow between a trough to its north and a ridge to its south. A combination of shear and dry air will likely prevent it from getting better organized, and no substantial strengthening is expected.
By Monday morning, baroclinic forcing could allow the system to strengthen slightly before it undergoes extratropical transition or merges with a non-tropical weather system. Alternatively, the system could open into a trough on Sunday as its forward speed increases, as depicted by most of the global models. Since most of those models also show the low reforming a day later before it becomes extratropical, the NHC forecast carries the system as a continuous cyclone for the sake of simplicity.
It should be stressed that the rain and gusty winds associated with the system as it passes near Bermuda overnight will be the same regardless of the state of its circulation.
Forecast Discussion by Forecaster Zelinsky from the NHC.