Adverse Weather Alert Due To Tropical Waves & The ITCZ

Key Messages:
— An Adverse Weather Alert Yellow Level is in effect from 5:00 AM Wednesday through 4:00 PM Thursday 18th June 2020 for both Trinidad and Tobago. Note that adverse weather is possible through the weekend. Adverse weather is forecast to primarily impact Trinidad and to a lesser extent Tobago as well as marine areas mainly to the east and southeast of Trinidad.
Overall rainfall accumulations are high. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to begin overnight tonight and continue through the end of the week, with periodic cloudy periods. Generally, overall totals (beginning midnight Wednesday) through 8:00 PM Sunday (due to back-to-back tropical waves and the ITCZ) forecast to record 50-100 millimeters with isolated totals up to 200 millimeters through the next 5 days. There is an elevated threat of street floodingflash flooding, and lesser so riverine flooding.
— Seas are forecast to increasingly agitate as we progress through the week, up to 2.0 meters in open waters over the next 24 to 72 hours, becoming up to 2.5 meters through the weekend. Sheltered areas are forecast to be near one meter by occasionally rough or choppy during thunderstorms or heavy/violent showers. A brief long-period swell event is forecast to begin by mid-Wednesday through Thursday.
— Gusty winds in excess of 60 KM/H are likely particularly on Wednesday, and then again on Friday through the weekend. These winds will accompany showers and thunderstorms. Winds of this strength will produce wind damage including downed trees, utility poles, and roof damage. Localized power outages possible.
Landslides possible in elevated areas.

The Adverse Weather Alert

As we’ve been monitoring, the axis of Tropical Wave 09, Tropical Wave 10 and Tropical Wave 11 are forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago over the next 5 days interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone. These weather features are forecast to bring periods of rain, showers, and isolated thunderstorms. Weather conditions are forecast to deteriorate overnight as the active weather following the wave axis of Tropical Wave 09 moves across T&T. Because of this, the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service issued an Adverse Weather Alert Yellow Level at 3:17 PM Tuesday.

This initial alert will begin at 5:00 AM Wednesday 17th June 2020 and continue through 4:00 PM Thursday 18th June 2020. Note that inclement weather is forecast to continue past the end of the alert, which may cause the alert to be extended and/or upgraded due to the severity of impacts.

Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm watch or warning AT THIS TIME.

Based on the latest model guidance and analysis, severe weather is forecast to begin after midnight continuing through Sunday 21st June 2020.

Information from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service concerning the Adverse Weather Alert for June 17-18th 2020

There is a 70% chance of heavy showers and thunderstorm activity associated with the interaction between a Tropical wave and the ITCZ. The most impactful weather is expected during early morning tomorrow (17th June 2020) and again on Thursday (18th June 2020) with the passage of another Tropical wave. Street/flash flooding can be expected in heavy downpours and gusty winds in excess of 60km/hr can accompany showers and thunderstorm activity. Seas can become agitated/choppy in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.” according to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service. This “alert” status takes into account the possibility of the event occurring. This adverse weather event is likely.

The color of the alert indicates the severity of the event and the probability of the event occurring. Currently, the alert level is at Yellow. This means that the hazard is possible to be aware of the impacts of Street/Flash Flooding and Gusty Winds in your area. Areas prone to landslides should also be aware of the hazard and impacts.

Image Credit: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
Image Credit: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
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