Tropical Wave 07 is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago on June 11th into June 12th, 2020. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly late Thursday through Friday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall may trigger street or flash flooding. Gusty winds in excess of 60 KM/H may cause downed trees, utility poles, and lines, as well as brief power outages. The chances for landslides/landslips remain very low, as much of the heavy rainfall is forecast to favor offshore areas, as well as along Eastern halves of the islands. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone formation. Live Updates for this event have ended.
Isolated Thunderstorms Mostly To Remain Offshore
9:45 PM Thursday 11th June 2020
Isolated thunderstorms have developed between Trinidad and Tobago, with much of the heavy rainfall remaining offshore. Frequent lightning remains visible across both islands.
Over the last hour (8:45 PM – 9:45 PM), 120 lightning strikes have been detected, with peak intensity occurring with 16 strikes per minute.
As the instability and moisture of Tropical Wave 07 finally move across T&T tonight, most of the thunderstorm and shower activity will favor Tobago, as well as Eastern and Northern areas of Trinidad. Heavier rainfall will remain offshore.
Views of Lightning From Across Trinidad
9:30 PM Thursday 11th June 2020
Frequent Lightning Ongoing Between Northern Trinidad and Tobago
9:00 PM Thursday 11th June 2020
Isolated Thunderstorms Remain In The Forecast For T&T
7:20 Thursday 11th June 2020
Gusty Winds Move Through Scarborough
4:34 PM Thursday 11th June 2020
Moderate to heavy showers are moving through Scarborough and parts of Tobago this afternoon, bringing gusty winds to the island.
Isolated Showers Move Across Trinidad
4:00 PM Thursday 11th May 2020
Over the last few hours, isolated showers have moved across parts of Trinidad, with heavier showers favoring southern areas of Trinidad. Wind gusts have generally remained below 35 KM/H. Rainfall accumulations have remained below 10 millimeters.
As the afternoon into evening progresses, additional showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast, with heavier activity favoring Tobago and Eastern areas of Trinidad.
Gusty Winds To Move Across Trinidad and Tobago
2:15 PM Thursday 11th June 2020
Winds up to 25 knots (46 KM/H) and gusts to 30 knots (55 KM/H) are forecast to move across parts of Tobago and Eastern Trinidad later this afternoon into tonight, associated with Tropical Wave 07.
Tropical Wave Not Expected To Develop
1:45 PM Thursday 11th June 2020
The tropical disturbance, Tropical Wave 07, continues to be ravaged by wind shear and unfavorable upper-level conditions. Chances for tropical cyclone formation are now near zero (0%) over the next 48 hours and 5 days respectively.
According to the National Hurricane Center, “An area of disorganized showers located about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands is associated with a tropical wave. Significant development is not anticipated due to inhibiting environmental conditions while the system moves over the Windward Islands later tonight.“
Showers to interrupt hot, partly cloudy conditions
1:00 PM Thursday 11th June 2020
An area of low-level convergence directly east of Trinidad is forecast to act as a catalyst for shower and thunderstorm development across the island, bringing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds this afternoon.
Taking a Look Back At Tropical Wave 07
12:45 PM Thursday 11th June 2020
Stronger Convection Shifts North, Moisture Still To Move Across T&T
10:30 AM Thursday 11th June 2020
Much of the heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms shifted to the north overnight. However, deep tropical moisture is beginning to stream across Trinidad and Tobago ahead of the wave axis.
This moisture will fuel showers and isolated thunderstorms across Trinidad and Tobago remain in the forecast due to sea-breeze convergence, daytime heating, and orographic effects are forecast to triggering activity after midday through the afternoon. Increased cloudiness with isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast into tonight through the first half of Friday.
As of 10:30 AM, the axis of this wave is located along 57/58W with much of the activity near 11N, 57W, or just under 450 kilometers east-northeast of Trinidad and Tobago. Presently, the wave is located in an area of favorable upper-level divergence, unfavorable low-level convergence, and unfavorable wind shear (from the southwest) between 20 to 30 knots.
Chances For Tropical Development Remain Low
7:00 AM AST Thursday 11th June 2020
The tropical disturbance, Tropical Wave 07, has hit the anticipated wall of wind shear, dissipating much of the overnight convective activity. Saharan Dust and unfavorable upper level conditions still do not support development. Chances for tropical cyclone formation remain low (10%) over the next 48 hours and 5 days respectively.
According to the National Hurricane Center, “A well-defined tropical wave located about 275 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although significant development is not anticipated due to inhibiting environmental conditions, some areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands later today through early Friday while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.”
00Z Models – The Rains Stay North
Chances for Development Remain Low
1:00 AM AST June 11th 2020
Based on the latest runs of top global models, the threat for heavy rainfall has markedly shifted north. While isolated to scattered showers and the odd thunderstorm remain possible on Thursday through Friday, bringing the threats of street/flash flooding and gusty winds, this is not forecast to be a widespread heavy rainfall event for T&T.
As of the 2:00 AM EST (1:00 AM AST Local Time) Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center maintains a low chance (10%) of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours and 5 days respectively.
“A well-defined tropical wave located about 350 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although significant development is not expected due to dry air and adverse upper-level winds, some areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands later today through early Friday while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.”
The axis of Tropical Wave 07 is now just under 600 kilometers east of Trinidad and Tobago, with much of the convection remaining along the northern part of the wave axis.
Tropical Wave 07 Continues To Organize
12:00 AM Thursday 11th June 2020
Convective (showers, thunderstorms) activity continue to increase across the wave axis as it moves westward. The wave is entering a more hostile environment, with increasing wind shear. Saharan Dust also surrounds the wave axis, which will act as a detriment to formation.
This tropical disturbance remains an open tropical wave with no closed center of circulation based on scatterometer data over the last 4 hours.
Tropical Wave 07: Low Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation
Forecast to bring showers, thunderstorms to T&T
9:00 PM Wednesday 10th June 2020
This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours.
Tropical Wave 07 Tagged By National Hurricane Center
7:00 AM AST Wednesday 10th June 2020