Hurricane Dorian Brings Flooding, Storm Surge & Tornado Threat to Mid-Atlantic.

At 12:00 PM AST, the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 79.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).

A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Thursday. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move parallel to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday.

Forecast Cone for Hurricane Dorian
Forecast Cone for Hurricane Dorian

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 175 KM/H with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 315 kilometers.

A Weatherflow site at Shutes Folly in Charleston Harbor recently reported a wind gust of 126 KM/H.

An unofficial observing station at Ft Johnson on James Island recently reported a wind gust of 119 KM/H

A Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust of 126 KM/H at a height of 50 ft.

The Weatherflow station at Winyah Bay, South Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 97 KM/H and a wind gust of 122 KM/H

Charleston International Airport recently reported sustained winds of 64 KM/H and a wind gust of 91 KM/H.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 millibars. NOAA buoy 41004, currently located inside the eye, has reported a minimum pressure of 959.7 millibars.

Hurricane Dorian’s Watches & Warnings

Watches and Warnings as a result of Hurricane Dorian
Watches and Warnings as a result of Hurricane Dorian

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

  • Edisto Beach SC to Poquoson VA
  • Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
  • Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
  • Hampton Roads

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

  • Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
  • Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
  • Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
  • Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
  • Altamaha Sound GA to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
  • Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

Hazards Affecting Land

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the South Carolina coast during the next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by late tonight and Thursday.

Storm Surge Warnings as a result of Hurricane Dorian
Storm Surge Warnings as a result of Hurricane Dorian

Storm Surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

  • Awendaw SC to Myrtle Beach SC – 5 to 8 ft
  • Myrtle Beach SC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers – 4 to 7 ft
  • Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads – 2 to 4 ft
  • Edisto Beach SC to Awendaw SC – 2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Hurricane Dorian Rainfall
Hurricane Dorian Rainfall

Rainfall: Hurricane Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

  • Coastal Carolinas – 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
  • Far southeast Virginia – 3 to 8 inches
  • Extreme southeastern New England – 2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

Seas: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tornadoes: Tornadoes are possible through this afternoon across eastern North Carolina and the upper South Carolina coast. The tornado threat will continue tonight across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.

Several tornadoes have already caused destruction across coastal areas of North Carolina as outer bands move across the region.

This tropical storm is of no threat to the Lesser Antilles, including Trinidad and Tobago.

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