Tropical Weather Update:
— TW 02: The next tropical wave is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago on Sunday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms trailing into Monday. This tropical wave is fairly weak, but some favorable conditions are in place for convective activity.
— Area of Interest in the Western Caribbean: As of the latest tropical update, a Special Tropical Weather Outlook was issued for a broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean, which has low chances of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours through 5 days.
Tropical Wave (02)
The second tropical wave of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is located in the Central Atlantic Ocean in the latest tropical update. The axis of this wave is located at 50W, with a surge of moisture trailing the wave axis. In addition, a surge of trade winds and Saharan Dust is forecast to follow this wave, bringing moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust across Trinidad and Tobago over next week.
Based on latest model guidance, the axis of this wave is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago Sunday, with active weather occurring on Sunday into Monday. Scattered showers, generally remaining light to moderate, with a few isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms are all likely across Trinidad and Tobago.
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers means that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Generally, because of winds associated with weak tropical waves, showers and thunderstorms tend to follow a west-northwest track, generally missing areas across Southwestern Trinidad and even Northwestern Trinidad – though activity due to local climatic effects such as daytime heating may trigger shower and thunderstorm development across these areas.
This wave is not forecast to produce widespread severe weather, nor is it forecast to produce widespread heavy rainfall. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible in heavy showers and/or thunderstorms, as well as gusty winds. Generally, 10-20 millimeters are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago, with isolated areas receiving 30-40 millimeters over the 48 hour period. There is the concern for street and flash flooding, as well as gusty winds in heavy showers and thunderstorms, particularly on Sunday.
Area of Interest in the Western Caribbean
In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2:20 PM Friday 31st May 2019, a few hours before the official start of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the NHC is monitoring a broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean for Tropical Cyclone Formation.
This broad area of low pressure is accompanied by cloudiness and showers centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move westward over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible through early next week as long as it remains over water. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days.
The next update on this system from the National Hurricane Center will be at 2:00 AM tonight (Saturday) as regular issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks begin.
In 12Z runs of the top three models for tropical development, the EMCWF, GFS (FV3-GFS & older GFS), as well as the UKMET, all show some support for the formation of a tropical depression or at most a weak tropical storm. However, the forecast center of circulation will be hugging the Western Mexican coast, limiting time for the development of this potential system. The next name on the list of names for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Barry.
This system poses NO threat to the Eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago.
Tropical Cyclone Climatology
Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin for May into June (1851-2015). Credit: NWS/NOAA/NHC
The official start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season is June 1st, just a few hours away. For the first week of June, we turn our eyes to the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, historically. However, tropical cyclones can form in the Atlantic Basin, without regard for the location once conditions support development.
It serves as a reminder that the 2019 Hurricane Season is quite literally hours aware and it is important to become prepared for both the hurricane season and the rainy season ahead!